Severe weather in some areas possible on Saturday night; Probability of rain on Sunday highest in the north

The maximum Saturday temperature in Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport was 79 degrees. That’s warm for October 9th; Our average Twin Cities high this time of year is only 62 degrees.

Along with the heat, we had sticky dew points here and in most parts of Minnesota. This moisture will provide fuel for thunderstorms.

Minnesota and western Wisconsin will see showers and thunderstorms on Saturday night and through Saturday night.

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has included three counties in western central Minnesota in a severe thunderstorm surveillance that will last until 10 p.m. this Saturday:

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6:35 p.m. Saturday update:

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has placed much of central Minnesota and parts of western Minnesota on a heavy thunderstorm watch through 2 a.m. Sunday:

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You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the Minnesota Public Radio News network, and you can see updated weather information on the MPR News Live weather blog.

The general storm outlook for Saturday evening and the night hours of Saturday night shows that isolated severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of western and central Minnesota that are shaded yellow in the following graph:

“Tonight” in the NWS graphic refers to Saturday night and Saturday night overnight. The dark green shaded area, which also includes the Twin Cities, poses a low risk of storms; so that an isolated heavy thunderstorm is possible.

Here is the severe weather discussion for Saturday night and Sunday in Northeast Minnesota and North Wisconsin from the NWS Duluth office:

Parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin are in thick fog on Saturday nights and overnight, ending at 10 a.m. on Sunday:

Probability of rain on Sunday?

The best chance of showers and a few embedded T-storms during Sunday daylight hours is in the northern half of Minnesota plus west of central Minnesota.

NOAA’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) predictive model shows the potential rain pattern during the daylight hours of Sunday:

A few isolated showers are possible elsewhere in Minnesota and parts of Wisconsin on Sunday.

Temperature trends

The Sunday highs will be north and west in the 60s, with about 70s from the Twin Cities to southeast Minnesota and west Wisconsin:

The afternoon dew points are in the 50s:

Back to the high temperatures, the metropolitan highs of Twin Cities are expected to hit the upper 60s on Monday and Tuesday, and then the mid 60s on Wednesday. By the end of the week, cooler temperatures set in, with highs in the lower 60s on Thursday and the upper 50s on Friday. Highs can be in the upper 50s again on Saturday, then ricochet off again on Sunday.

The NWS Climate Prediction Center shows a trend towards above-average temperatures in Minnesota and western Wisconsin this coming Sunday for the following week:

Fall color report

The percent change to fall color is currently highest in the northern half of Minnesota as well as in the northeastern part of the Twin Cities metropolitan area. Here’s the latest Fall color report from the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources:

The dark red shaded areas of northern Minnesota have peaked. Remember, all deciduous trees are included in the fall color report, not just maples.

See Wisconsin fall color information here.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates every Saturday and Sunday at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. on MPR News.