Ukraine Crisis – Situation Analysis (09/23/2022) – Ukraine

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conflict

If Ukrainian forces can hold the significant areas they have reportedly recaptured in recent weeks, or indeed continue to be successful, more areas are likely to be accessible for humanitarian aid. The reclaimed areas were characterized by widespread UXO and mine contamination, as well as significant damage to civilian infrastructure, affecting utilities such as heating, gas, electricity, and telecommunications, and the loss of many civilian homes. In addition, attacks on Ukrainian city centers continue to pose a threat, with the city of Kharkiv reporting attacks on electricity and water supplies causing a power outage for large parts of the city.

shift

The displacement picture remains volatile, with the number of internally displaced people rising by 330,000 in the last month.
Somewhat confusing is the number of returnees, currently estimated at just over six million, but many of these are likely to be temporary. Conflict and security remain the biggest push/pull factors, but access to services and employment also play a major role. The largest number of IDPs now live in the eastern macro-region, which is also where the majority of IDPs come from (61%). This will put a heavy strain on areas close to the conflict fronts, which are also furthest away in terms of supplies and logistics. The average household size of IDPs has decreased, perhaps because some family members are returning, but the number of vulnerable groups in the IDP population remains significant.

Humanitarian Access

Access for humanitarian aid is severely restricted by conflicts in the east and south of the country, with much of the aid in frontline areas being provided by government officials and national NGOs.
Access to NGCAs is severely restricted and there is little information about the humanitarian situation in cities like Mariupol and Kherson. Evacuations from areas near the frontline in the east continued, but it is estimated that over 330,000 residents remain in Donetska Oblast.
Logistical challenges are another obstacle as the road and rail network is extensively destroyed and supply routes are cut off. In addition, the high fuel costs have a particular impact on local NGOs.

humanitarian conditions

The conflict in Ukraine had a significant impact on the humanitarian situation. Damage and fears of violence have caused nearly seven million people to flee their homes, while hundreds others remain in conflict-affected areas where they have limited access to goods, services and assistance and risk protection incidents. At least 5,663 civilians have died and 8,055 have been injured since February, including 365 children killed and 623 wounded.

The stress associated with the trauma has resulted in an estimated 15 million people across the country needing psychological help.

In addition, large-scale intra-country migration, including many trying to return to their areas of origin, is facilitating the transmission of communicable diseases, leading to multiple outbreaks. The lack of health services, overcrowded and poor housing and lack of access to clean water exacerbate the risk of disease. It is estimated that six million people have limited or limited access to tap water.
The costs of services and goods also put households under pressure and lead to negative coping strategies. By July, over 35% of families reported using nutrition-based coping mechanisms at or above crisis levels. Both the cost of food (28% annual increase in the food basket) and the cost of medicines (between 10% and 25% since January) are threatening the health of families who may be suffering from nutritional problems and untreated NCDs.

As winter approaches, the risk increases for vulnerable households with increased needs for heat and electricity, particularly in conflict zones, and for displaced people who are struggling to find adequate shelter before winter.

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